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Oct 3, 20221 min read

Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Looks Short-lived, Key Resistance Being Tested After Dismal PMI’s

EUR/USD ANALYSIS TALKING POINTSEurozone PMI data misses reflects declining outlook for the region.U.S. PMI data in focus.EUR/USD faces key levels.EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROPThe euro opened higher this morning, maintaining its late run last week but ran into some fundamental headwinds post-PMI (see economic calendar below). German PMI was the first blow missing estimates for September, paving the way for a eurozone miss as well.


Daily EUR/USD price action is trading at a key area of confluence with the 20-day EMA (purple), short-term trendline resistance (blue) and December 2002 swing low at 0.9854 all converging as resistance. This makes a breakout above this zone significant in that it should open up subsequent upside. With that in mind, fundamentals remain skewed towards USD ascendency making the possibility of a return to 0.9685 more likely.


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