The Intel stock price fell by -1.17% on the last day (Thursday, 28th Jul 2022) from $40.18 to $39.71. During the day the stock fluctuated 2.77% from a day low at $39.04 to a day high of $40.12. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.3% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 13 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 55 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.20 billion.
The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $40.06 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -15.66% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $28.80 and $33.79 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
Signals & Forecast
The Intel stock holds a sell signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately $39.77. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $38.36. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, July 01, 2022, and so far it has risen 9.27%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found.
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $37.41 and $37.21. There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Intel finds support just below today's level at $37.41. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $37.21 and $36.97.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $1.08 between high and low, or 2.77%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.77%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $37.96 (-4.41%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 18 days ago.)
Trading Expectations For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday 29th we expect Intel Corporation to open at $39.62, and during day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $38.56 and $40.86, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.15 (+/-2.89%) up or down from last closing price. If Intel Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.78% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $41.23 (3.83%) than the support at $37.41 (5.79%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be hold until the stock is closer to the support level.
Insiders are positive buying more shares than they are selling in Intel. In the last 100 trades there were 1.51 million shares bought and 602.39 thousand shares sold. The last trade was done 28 days ago by Yeary Frank D who bough 859.93 shares. The large amount of stocks bought compared to stocks sold indicate that the insiders believe there is a potential good upside. In some cases larger purchases can be explained by due date for stock options.
Is Intel Corporation stock A Buy?
Intel holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.734
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