The ninth month of the year typically sees a strong performance by the US Dollar.
The Euro and the Japanese Yen tend to underperform the rest of the majors in September.
September has been a weak month for both gold prices and US stocks.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For September, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which capture trading during the winddown of aggressive central bank intervention beginning with the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the environment we find ourselves in now.
Nevertheless, as has been the case for the past six months, continued atypical conditions diminish the dependability of using seasonality as a significant price action indicator. It remains that case that global commodity markets remain distressed amid Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine, and global supply chains are still dealing with China’s on-again, off-again zero-COVID strategy. Thus, we must conclude that strategies based around seasonality tendencies are still unreliable compared to previous years.
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