There appears to be a chance today to invest in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker: TLT; expense ratio: 0.15%), which offers exposure to US Treasuries with maturities of more than 20 years out. The price is depicted in this graph in relation to its 200-week price average over the previous 15 years. If the number is greater than 1, it means the price is above average; if it is less than 1, it means the price is below average. Additionally, the ETF is approximately 30% below average at 0.7.
But is 30% undesirable? The use of statistical measurements like means and standard deviations can be helpful in this situation. The mean, or where the price of TLT has traded in relation to its 200-week average over the previous 15 years, is shown by the dotted blue line, while the red and green lines on the chart reflect the standard deviations. One standard deviation is represented by the red and green lines that are closer to the mean (red for negative and green for positive), while two by the lines that are farther away. The fact that the ETF is currently more than two standard deviations below its average shows that it is significantly oversold. After all, prices do tend to revert to the mean, and you can see that from the previous spikes above the green +2 standard deviation line.
When that might happen is the crucial question. This ETF has lately declined in popularity but is anticipated to regain it after inflation has peaked and interest rate increases have slowed down. This is because it concentrates on long-duration bonds, which are more susceptible to changes in inflation and interest rate expectations. Its substantial 3% dividend yield up until that point can provide you comfort.
Comments